First post of the month, hope it is not too late. I have been a little bit preoccupied this month, but if you read my previous post, and trade the trend with me, you would be having some paper profits ’till now. Don’t plan to do any technical analysis today, I will cash in some paper profits this week, as i expect a ‘weak’ pull back in the first two weeks of July. As earning reports come in, the volatility might rise again. Don’t want to be too greedy.

To address the topic of this post, ‘the bubbles’. I’d like to start with a question, “If there is no shortage of Oil supply, why is the oil price skyrocketing?” When the institutions (mostly banks) cheering the oil price will reach 150$ by summer, 200$ by 2009 or 2010, what are they based on, I still have a vague impression on what are they saying. I smelled bubble, I sensed the bubble, but I won’t see the bubble until it burst. Mr. Ben kept the interest unchanged last week, but I doubt European Central Bank will do the same this Thursday, if they raise interest, there would be a crack on US$ again. Gold is the commodity that should be used to hedge the US$, it shouldn’t be oil. I understand the agricultural commodities go up because the shortage in supply and floods. BUT OIL? I have a hunch that because the banks are trying to make back their write offs in the subprime crisis, they are cheering up the oil price to the high (150 max), and will short it back to the 80 ranges. Seems MR. Ben has been helping them a lot. But the suckers will be late buyers who could not resist the temptation.

I will not buy oil, and I will not SHORT it either, I will probably buy some put options if my hunch overpowers my objectivity (my trading laws – not picking the top). BUT What do I know, I am just an ordinary speculator who occasionally has some hunches over the market.

Good LUCK!